Using Fuzzy Logic to Obtain PERT Three-Time Estimates in Oil and Gas Projects

Authors

fuzzy logic and sets, project management, cpm, pert three-time estimate, expert

A lot of projects especially in Oil and Gas sector are out of schedule. Main problem is wrongly calculated activity durations,

because Oil and Gas projects are very large and have many activities. In most cases experienced person, who may not be expert in

statistics or in its area at all, chooses durations of project activities. Moreover experience and knowledge of person is always limited

and his/her opinion is subjective. We propose method of survey for experts in a field of project’s area, especially Oil and Gas sector.

During the survey experts will be asked to answer questions about activity durations in intervals, not in exact numbers. Survey uses

linguistic variables as answers and calculates fuzzy numbers from them. Further defuzzified activity durations will serve as input for

simulation.

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