Could Science Fiction Induce Strategic Weak Signals?

Abstract

Weak signals are essential for strategic behavior. Traditional strategic management frameworks resorted to environmental scanning as a measure of uncovering potential forces of disruption and their weak signals. Igor Ansoff expressed , as early as 1975  (Ansoff, 1975), the need for an approach to environmental discontinuities and how these discontinuities are preceded by “ weak signals” made obscure by massive information ”noises”. Classic search for weak signals through environmental scanning has given way to more recent “modern” approaches depending on the exploration of the internet space (Van den Poel, 2013). And even more advanced approaches exploring surprises due to the occurrence of highly unlikely events or “Black Swans” (Taleb, 2007-2015).

Attempts so far have, to all appearances, ignored science fiction as a possible source of weak signals. This will be the focus of the following article.

The approach is qualitative. The article starts with an analysis of the concepts of weak signals, science fiction and strategic thinking. This is followed by an exploration of the relationship between science fiction data, weak signals and strategic business thinking. Supporting case evidence is drawn from actual company histories.

The article could enhance the concept of Big Data and the outcome of big data analysis.